We have seemed to have entered a rather unsettled and stormy pattern across the Twin Tiers this past week and that looks to continue late this week. Although temperatures will be slightly above average we can still see winter weather affect the Twin Tiers. Later this week, we will be tracking another system that could bring another wintery mess to the region.

On Wednesday, an area of low pressure over the South Central United States will begin to strengthen and head towards the northeast. Just like last weeks system, this storm will head towards the Ohio River Valley, but that is when the uncertainty comes into play again. Models are in disagreement right now in regards of which direction the center of low pressure will track after it moves into the Ohio River Valley. The GFS continues to show a colder solution, meaning that area of low pressure slides through the Mid-Atlantic and to our east which means we see more in the way of accumulating snow. However, the European model shows low pressure sliding to our north, which will bring the threat for freezing rain into play. With cold air being pushed in again to our north and warm air being surged in the upper layers from the south, the European has the recipe for some ice across the region.

The underlying factor to see which kind of track this system will take will come down to how quickly and strong high pressure slides in over the Central US. Stronger and quicker sliding high pressure will force the storm to slide south, thus leading to a colder solution. A weaker and slower high pressure will allow room for the storm to head to our north and the door opens for freezing rain turning to rain. A lot still to decipher and a solution to which track the storm will take will likely be understood by Monday evening. From there, it will be about tinkering with what type of precipitation we see and how much.

Latest trends among models have shown a deeper trough over the Central US on Wednesday as our storm strengthens. A deeper trough will mean a southern solution and we will see more in terms of snowfall. We will have to see if this trend continues our if models revert back to a weaker trough over the next 24 hours. Stick with us through the week as we keep you updated on what is to come.

-Alex